Weather In Tokyo In Oct

Tokyo, the sprawling capital of Japan and the world's most populous metropolitan area, has a humid subtropical climate (Köppen classification: Cfa), characterized by four distinct seasons, hot and humid summers, mild winters, and notable influences from the East Asian monsoon and typhoons. Summers bring high temperatures and humidity, often exceeding 30°C with frequent heatwaves intensified by the urban heat island effect, while winters remain relatively mild with rare snowfall in central areas.

A rainy season (tsuyu) in early summer and typhoon risks from summer to autumn contribute to significant seasonal precipitation. Dense urbanization further amplifies heat retention and temperature extremes in the city compared to surrounding regions.[1][2][3]Tokyo's climate reflects its location on the Pacific side of Honshu island in the KantÅ region, where eastern Japan's weather patterns dominate.

Summers (JuneâAugust) are hot and humid, with average temperatures reaching around 28â30°C and peaks frequently above 33°C, exacerbated by high humidity and the urban heat island phenomenon from extensive concrete, asphalt, and anthropogenic heat sources. This effect makes central Tokyo noticeably warmer than nearby rural areas, increasing risks of heat-related health issues during prolonged hot spells.

The rainy season typically spans early June to mid-July, delivering consistent rainfall, while typhoons peak from July to October, bringing heavy downpours and strong winds.[2][1]Winters (DecemberâFebruary) are cool and dry, with average temperatures around 6â8°C and occasional dips near 0°C, though heavy snow is uncommon in the urban core due to the Pacific influence. Spring (MarchâMay) and autumn (SeptemberâNovember) offer milder, transitional conditions, with comfortable temperatures and lower humidity, though sudden showers can occur.

Recent decades have seen warmer trends, including more frequent high-temperature days in summer and challenges in maintaining seasonal distinctions, linked to broader climate patterns and urban factors.[2][1][3] Overview Climate classification Tokyo is classified under the Köppen climate classification as having a humid subtropical climate (Cfa).[4][5]This classification, denoted Cfa, indicates a mild temperate regime (C) with no distinct dry season (f) and hot summers (a).[6]The specific criteria for Cfa include a mean temperature in the coldest month above 0 °C (32 °F) but below 18 °C (64.4 °F), a mean temperature in the warmest month of 22 °C (71.6 °F) or higher, and precipitation distributed throughout the year without a pronounced dry period.[6]These conditions arise from Tokyo's coastal location on the eastern side of Honshu Island, which brings consistent moisture from oceanic influences and results in humid conditions year-round.In comparison, while the majority of the KantŠregion shares this Cfa classification, areas farther north in Honshu transition toward humid continental climates (Köppen Dfa), characterized by colder winters where the mean temperature of the coldest month falls below 0 °C.

General characteristics Tokyo experiences four distinct seasons, each with noticeable transitions in temperature, humidity, and atmospheric conditions, creating a clear annual rhythm of weather changes.

The city's location on the eastern coast of Honshu, in close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, combined with the influence of the East Asian monsoon, shapes its overall climate, bringing seasonal shifts in wind directions, moisture levels, and air mass characteristics.[3][7]Summers are typically hot and humid, dominated by warm, moist air flowing from the southeast under the influence of the summer monsoon, while winters are relatively mild with drier conditions and occasional incursions of cold, dry air from the northwest.

Spring and autumn serve as transitional periods, often featuring pleasant, moderate conditions with lower humidity compared to summer. High humidity is a persistent feature, especially during the warmer half of the year, due to the maritime influence of the nearby Pacific.[7][8]Wind patterns vary seasonally in response to the monsoon system, shifting from prevailing northerly to northwesterly flows in winter to southerly and southeasterly flows in summer.

Sunshine tends to be more abundant during drier winter periods on the Pacific-facing side, while cloudier skies prevail during the wetter, more humid summer months. These traits distinguish Tokyo's weather from more continental climates, emphasizing the moderating role of the Pacific and the dynamic monsoon circulation.[7] Urban heat island effect Tokyo experiences a pronounced urban heat island (UHI) effect, where air temperatures in densely built-up urban areas are significantly higher than in surrounding rural or suburban regions.

This phenomenon arises primarily from the replacement of natural landscapes with heat-absorbing materials such as concrete, asphalt, and brick, which store solar radiation during the day and release it slowly at night, combined with reduced evaporative cooling due to limited green space and the addition of anthropogenic heat from vehicles, industrial activities, air conditioning, and other urban energy use.[9][10]The UHI effect in Tokyo is most pronounced at night, when urban surfaces retain and re-radiate heat more effectively than vegetated rural areas, resulting in temperature differences of several degrees Celsius between the urban core and surrounding regions.

During the day, differences are smaller due to stronger solar heating in both urban and rural areas, but anthropogenic heat fluxes in central Tokyo often exceed 400 W mâ»Â², with peaks reaching up to 1590 W mâ»Â² in winter from sources such as hot water supply in commercial buildings.[9][10]Key factors intensifying the UHI in Tokyo include extreme building density and height, particularly in central districts, which reduce natural ventilation and increase heat trapping, alongside limited green space that restricts cooling through evapotranspiration.

Waste heat from the city's vast population and economic activities further contributes to elevated temperatures, with the effect more evident in winter due to weaker sea breezes from Tokyo Bay that normally provide some cooling.[11][10][11] Temperature patterns Annual and monthly averages Tokyo has an annual mean temperature of 15.8°C, based on the 1991â2020 climatological normals published by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).[12] This value reflects the city's humid subtropical climate, characterized by warm summers and mild winters.[12]The monthly mean temperatures for Tokyo, also from the JMA's 1991â2020 normals, are as follows:[12]In November, Tokyo experiences mild autumn weather with an average temperature of ~13°C (55°F), an average high of 17°C (63°F), and an average low of 9°C (48°F), consistent with the monthly mean of 12.5°C from the JMA normals.[12]August is the warmest month at 26.9°C, while January is the coldest at 5.4°C.[12] These monthly means confirm Tokyo's Köppen Cfa classification, with the coldest month above 0°C and the warmest month exceeding 22°C.[12]Compared to other major Japanese cities using the same 1991â2020 normals, Tokyo's annual mean of 15.8°C is higher than Sapporo's 9.2°C in the north but lower than Nagoya's 16.2°C and Osaka's 17.1°C farther west in the Kansai region.[12] Daily temperature ranges Tokyo experiences moderate diurnal temperature variations throughout the year, with average daily rangesâthe difference between daily high and low temperaturesâtypically falling between 5°C and 8°C, influenced by seasonal weather patterns, humidity, and the urban heat island effect.[13][14]The diurnal range is generally smaller in summer (around 5â6°C), when high humidity, cloud cover from the monsoon season, and persistent warm nights limit nighttime cooling.

In contrast, winter sees slightly larger ranges (around 6â8°C), as clearer skies and drier conditions allow for greater nighttime temperature drops. Transitional seasons of spring and autumn exhibit intermediate ranges, often around 6â7°C.[14][13]The urban heat island effect significantly reduces the diurnal range in central Tokyo by elevating nighttime minimum temperatures more than daytime maxima, due to heat retention from buildings, asphalt, and anthropogenic activity; this results in smaller daily swings in densely urbanized areas compared to suburbs.

Coastal locations experience further moderation of daytime highs from sea breezes, contributing to narrower ranges near the shore.[14][15]Suburban and inland areas, such as Nerima, often exhibit larger diurnal ranges and more pronounced daytime heating than central districts, particularly under certain synoptic conditions like persistent southwesterly winds that limit sea-breeze penetration and enhance inland warming.

This spatial contrast highlights how urbanization and proximity to the coast shape daily temperature fluctuations across the metropolitan area.[15][14] Record temperatures The highest temperature officially recorded at Tokyo's central observatory is 39.5°C, which occurred on July 20, 2004.[16] This remains the all-time maximum in the station's long-term record, which spans from 1875 to the present.[16]Other notable high temperatures include 39.1°C on August 3, 1994, and 39.0°C on July 23, 2018.[16] These extremes reflect the influence of Tokyo's pronounced urban heat island effect, which amplifies daytime maxima in the densely built-up city center compared to surrounding suburban or rural areas.The lowest temperature on record is -9.2°C, recorded on January 13, 1876.[16] The second-lowest is -9.1°C on January 14, 1885, followed by -8.6°C on January 24, 1927 (tied with January 12, 1876).[16] These early records predate significant urbanization, which now moderates winter minimums through the urban heat island effect.

Precipitation patterns Annual and monthly rainfall Tokyo receives an average annual precipitation of 1,598 mm, based on climatological normals for 1991â2020.[12] This reflects the city's humid subtropical climate, with rainfall distributed unevenly throughout the year.The wettest months are September and October, averaging 225 mm and 235 mm respectively, while the driest months are February and December, each averaging around 57 mm.[12] November serves as a transitional month with moderate precipitation averaging 96.3 mm, which typically decreases through the month.[12][17] The following table summarizes monthly average precipitation amounts:Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency, 1991â2020 normals.[12]A notable feature of Tokyo's precipitation pattern is the rainy season known as tsuyu (or baiu), which typically occurs from early June to mid-July.[18] This period, driven by a stationary front between warm and cool air masses, brings frequent rain and contributes substantially to the summer rainfall totals, particularly in June (168 mm) and July (156 mm).[12] Snowfall Snowfall in Tokyo is infrequent and typically light, a consequence of the city's humid subtropical climate and the pronounced urban heat island effect that elevates temperatures in densely built-up areas.According to Japan Meteorological Agency data for 1981â2010, the average annual snowfall totals about 11 cm (4.3 inches), with snow on the ground for an average of 5 days per year.[19]Snowfall occurs primarily from December to March, with the highest frequency in January and February; other months rarely see any snow.Due to the urban heat island effect, central Tokyo experiences fewer days with persistent snow cover and lower accumulation compared to suburban and outlying areas, where slightly cooler temperatures allow snow to linger longer.

Typhoons and heavy rain events Tokyo is significantly influenced by typhoons, which are responsible for many of the city's heavy rain events during the late summer and early autumn.

The peak typhoon season occurs in August and September, when tropical cyclones from the western North Pacific are most likely to approach or affect eastern Japan, including the Kanto region encompassing Tokyo.[20]Research using observational data from 1981â2010 shows that tropical cyclone-induced precipitation accounts for more than 8% of annual total precipitation in the Kanto region, with contributions exceeding 100 mm per year in eastern Japan areas and peaking in September due to heavier rainfall associated with individual cyclones.[21] At the latitude of Tokyo (approximately 36°N), the season of notable tropical cyclone influence spans July to September, with an average of 4â10 cyclone-influenced days per year.[21]Typhoons typically bring torrential rainfall, contributing substantially to the region's precipitation during this period, though direct landfalls in the immediate Tokyo area are less common compared to southern parts of Japan.[20][21] Seasonal variations Spring Spring in Tokyo, encompassing March through May, brings a gradual warming from winter's chill and the emergence of vibrant seasonal phenomena, particularly the blooming of cherry blossoms.Temperatures rise progressively during these months.

In March, the average temperature is around 9â10°C, with daily highs typically reaching 13â14°C and lows dropping to about 6°C. [22] By April, conditions become milder, with average temperatures climbing to approximately 14â15°C, highs often around 18°C, and lows around 11°C. [22] May sees further warming, with averages approaching 19°C, highs frequently reaching 22°C, and lows around 16°C.

[22] This progression reflects the humid subtropical climate's seasonal rhythm, where spring serves as a transitional period of increasing warmth.Precipitation in spring is moderate and variable, with occasional showers and a gradual increase in rainfall amounts across the months. March often sees around 100 mm of rainfall, while April and May experience slightly higher totals, typically in the range of 110â120 mm each month, contributing to greening landscapes without the intensity of later seasons.

[22]The most iconic feature of Tokyo's spring is the cherry blossom (sakura) viewing season, known as hanami. This period typically spans late March to early April, when thousands of cherry trees bloom across the city in pale pink and white. The exact timing depends on preceding winter temperatures and spring warmth, with blooms often beginning around late March and reaching full bloom within a week to ten days. [23] Mild, sunny days enhance the viewing experience, while cooler or windy conditions can shorten the bloom duration.

Hanami gatherings, featuring picnics under the blossoms, draw large crowds to parks such as Ueno Park and along riversides. Summer Summer in Tokyo, spanning June to August, features hot and humid conditions influenced by the monsoon pattern, beginning with the tsuyu rainy season and transitioning to intense heat and clearer skies later in the season.The tsuyu (plum rain) season typically starts in early June and ends in mid-July, lasting about 40â45 days in the Tokyo area.

During this period, rainfall is frequent but often intermittent rather than continuous, with a peak probability of precipitation on any given day around 45%. Monthly precipitation averages approximately 170 mm in June and 155 mm in July, accompanied by high humidity that makes conditions feel muggy even on non-rainy days.[18][24]Following the end of tsuyu, usually by late July, temperatures rise significantly. Average daily high temperatures reach about 30°C in July and 32°C in August, with peaks commonly exceeding 35°C during the hottest spells.

Relative humidity stays elevated, typically ranging from 72% to 76%, intensifying the perceived heat and creating persistently uncomfortable conditions.[24][25]Tropical nightsâwhen overnight low temperatures remain above 25°Câare common in July and August due to the combination of high humidity and urban heat retention, contributing to limited nighttime relief from the daytime heat.

Sunshine hours increase as the summer progresses, averaging around 4 hours per day in June due to cloud cover and rain, rising to 5 hours in July and 5.5 hours in August when clearer skies prevail.[24][25][26] Autumn Autumn in Tokyo, spanning September to November, features a gradual decline in temperatures, the peak period of typhoon risk in September, and a shift toward clearer skies that accentuate the vibrant autumn foliage season.Temperatures cool steadily across the season.

According to Japan Meteorological Agency climatological normals (1991â2020), the monthly mean temperature is 23.3°C in September, 18.0°C in October, and 12.5°C in November. [12] This decline brings comfortable conditions, particularly from mid-October onward, when daytime temperatures often feel mild and pleasant, with average highs dropping from around 27°C in September to approximately 17°C (63°F) in November.

[22] November features mild autumn weather with an average temperature of approximately 13°C (55°F), average high of 17°C (63°F), average low of 9°C (48°F), and average rainfall of ~60-90 mm (2.4-3.5 inches), with rainfall decreasing through the month. [12]In November 2025, the mean daily maximum temperature was 17.4°C (per JMA data), close to historical averages.

[27]For November 2026 (future as of March 2026), no actual data is available; use historical averages for planning, as long-range forecasts are unreliable for specifics.September retains lingering summer warmth and humidity but coincides with the peak of typhoon season, when typhoons most frequently affect Japan, including Tokyo. [20] The risk diminishes through October and becomes minimal by November.Precipitation remains substantial in September (224.9 mm) and October (234.8 mm) but decreases sharply to 96.3 mm in November.

[12] Cloud cover also reduces progressively, with overcast or mostly cloudy conditions dropping from about 53% in September to 34% in November, leading to more frequent clear skies. [22] Sunshine duration increases accordingly, reaching 149.8 hours in November. [12]These clearer conditions enhance the visibility of autumn foliage (kÅyÅ), when trees in parks and along streets turn brilliant reds, oranges, and yellows, peaking in late November in Tokyo. The combination of mild temperatures and crisp, clear weather makes the season highly favorable for outdoor viewing of these colorful displays.

Winter WinterTokyo's winter spans December to February and is characterized by cool, mild conditions typical of its humid subtropical climate. Average daily high temperatures range from approximately 10°C to 12°C, with lows between 1°C and 4°C. January is usually the coldest month, with average highs around 9.8°C and lows near 1.2°C. Daily temperature fluctuations are moderate, commonly spanning 6â10°C between highs and lows.

The season is drier than other periods of the year, with precipitation primarily falling as rain and fewer wet days overall (around 4â5 days per month).[28][22]Snowfall is infrequent in central Tokyo in terms of significant accumulation, due to the urban heat island effect and the city's coastal position. However, days with some snow (often light or trace amounts) occur on average approximately 2.8 days in January, 3.5 days in February, and 0.6 days in December.

Snow events are typically light, with quick melting and minimal accumulation.[28][22]When light snow does occur, it can cause temporary disruptions to transportation and urban mobility in this densely populated metropolis, though major impacts are rare given the low frequency of heavy events and minimal amounts involved. Extreme weather events Typhoons Tokyo is occasionally affected by typhoons, though direct landfalls on the city are relatively rare compared to more southern or coastal regions of Japan.

Instead, the metropolis typically experiences impacts from typhoons passing nearby or making landfall in adjacent areas such as Chiba Prefecture, resulting in strong winds, heavy rainfall, and localized storm surges in Tokyo Bay. These storms can disrupt transportation networks, cause power outages, and pose risks of flooding in low-lying urban areas.[20][29]Typical typhoon effects on Tokyo include gusty winds that may exceed 150 km/h in severe cases, leading to downed trees, damaged structures, and halted public transit systems.

Torrential rainfall often accompanies these systems, contributing to urban flooding and river overflows, while storm surges can elevate sea levels along the coast of Tokyo Bay, threatening waterfront infrastructure.[20][30]Notable recent typhoons impacting the Tokyo area include Typhoon Faxai in September 2019, which made landfall in Chiba Prefecture and brought record-breaking wind speeds to the region, including 206 km/h (128 mph) in Chiba and 156 km/h (97 mph) at Tokyo's Haneda Airport.

The storm caused widespread power outages affecting nearly a million households in Chiba and nearby prefectures, disrupted train and airline services, and resulted in at least three fatalities.[30]Typhoon Hagibis in October 2019 affected the KantÅ region, including Tokyo, with extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 240 mm in parts of the Tokyo area, one of the highest totals on record, leading to significant flooding and infrastructure damage across the metropolitan area.[29]The typhoon season for Japan runs from May to October, peaking in August and September, with approximately 30 typhoons forming annually in the northwest Pacific and an average of about three making landfall on the main islands each year.

While intense typhoons directly affecting Tokyo are less frequent, the region's high population density and coastal exposure amplify the potential impacts of even indirect passages.[20][29] Heatwaves Heatwaves in Tokyo are characterized by prolonged periods of extreme heat and high humidity, typically identified by consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 35 °C (95 °F) or higher.

These multi-day episodes are amplified by the city's dense urban environment, which contributes to slower nighttime cooling.One of the most severe heatwaves occurred in summer 2018, beginning around July 9 and persisting for weeks, with a peak temperature of 41.1 °C recorded nearby in Kumagaya on July 23.

This event led to over 70,000 hospitalizations nationwide due to heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and more than 1,000 heat-related deaths, with overwhelmed emergency services in Tokyo responding to thousands of calls on peak days.[31][32]In June 2022, Tokyo experienced its worst documented June heatwave since records began in 1875, including at least five consecutive days above 35 °C.

Heatstroke cases surged, with dozens hospitalized in single days, while authorities warned of power shortages and urged 37 million residents in the region to conserve electricity despite the need for air conditioning.[33]July 2024 marked the warmest July on record in Tokyo, with over 120 heatstroke deaths in the metropolitan area, predominantly among those over 60 found indoors without using air conditioning.

Nationwide, more than 37,000 people sought hospital treatment for heatstroke during the month.[34]These events highlight significant health impacts, as heatstroke disproportionately affects the elderly and vulnerable groups, often resulting in hospitalization or death when air conditioning is not used. Energy demand spikes dramatically during heatwaves due to widespread reliance on cooling, straining the electrical grid and prompting conservation measures to avert outages.

Cold waves and snowstorms Cold waves and snowstorms in Tokyo are episodes of multi-day unusually low temperatures and heavy snowfall triggered by southward outbreaks of cold continental air associated with the East Asian winter monsoon.

These cold surges transport frigid air from high-latitude regions such as Siberia across the Sea of Japan, often intensifying when upper-level troughs or blocking patterns facilitate their penetration southward.[35] When this dry cold air interacts with moist marine air from the Pacific or Japan Sea, it can produce significant snowfall even in Tokyo's typically mild winter climate.[35]One of the most notable events occurred in February 2014, when a powerful cold outbreak brought up to 27 cm of snow to Tokyo over several days, marking the heaviest snowfall in the city in 45 years.

This storm caused 11 deaths, more than 1,000 injuries (primarily from traffic accidents on icy roads), widespread power outages due to snow weight on lines, and major disruptions to rail services, highways, and air travel.[36]Another significant episode took place in January 2018, with over 21 cm of accumulation in central Tokyo across multiple days, leading to similar chaos including train delays, flight cancellations, and numerous road accidents.[37]More recently, heavy snow from cold outbreaks has continued to affect the city; for example, in February 2024, significant snowfall over several days grounded more than 100 flights, suspended or delayed train operations, and caused widespread transportation paralysis.[38]Such events frequently result in severe infrastructure and transportation impacts, including suspended commuter rail and subway lines, expressway closures, stranded vehicles, and heightened risk of accidents on untreated or icy surfaces.

Power infrastructure is also vulnerable, with snow accumulation occasionally snapping lines or overloading transformers. While Tokyo's typical winter snowfall remains limited, these exceptional multi-day cold waves and snowstorms demonstrate the city's vulnerability to extreme winter weather despite its humid subtropical classification.

Floods and landslides Tokyo is vulnerable to flooding primarily due to heavy rainfall events, its location on a low-lying plain crisscrossed by multiple river systems, and rapid post-war urbanization that has replaced water-retaining rice paddies and fields with impermeable surfaces such as asphalt and buildings.[39] This development has increased surface runoff and reduced natural drainage capacity in the northern Tokyo metropolitan area, particularly in the Nakagawa/Ayase River basin.[39] Subsidence from historical groundwater extraction and changing precipitation patterns have further heightened flood risks.[40]Heavy rainfall has historically triggered severe flooding and, in some cases, landslides in hilly or saturated areas around Tokyo.

Notable events include Typhoon Kathleen in 1947, which caused extensive inundation, destroyed approximately 31,000 homes, and resulted in about 1,100 deaths.[40] Typhoon Ida (also known as Kanogawa) in 1958 brought around 400 mm of rain over a week, leading to widespread street, home, and business flooding across the city.[40] These disasters prompted significant government investment in flood control infrastructure during the post-war era.

More recent heavy rain events, such as those associated with Typhoon Hagibis in 2019, caused river overflows and localized flooding in the Tokyo metropolitan region, alongside landslides triggered by soil saturation in affected areas.[40]To mitigate these risks, Tokyo has developed one of the world's most advanced flood defense systems, integrating dams, levees, reservoirs, and extensive underground infrastructure.

The centerpiece is the Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel (completed in 2006 at a cost of $2 billion), a 6.3 km network of tunnels and massive cylindrical tanks located up to 70 meters underground in Kasukabe, Saitama Prefecture.[40] Water from overflow levees flows into large shafts, collects in a pressure-adjusting tank (often called an "underground cathedral" due to its pillar-supported chambers), and is pumped at up to 200 cubic meters per second to the Edo River, preventing overflows in northern Tokyo and surrounding basins.[39] The facility, used an average of seven times per year, has reduced economic flood damage by approximately 148.4 billion yen over its first 18 years of operation.[39] Complementing this are dozens of dams, reservoirs, and river levees designed to handle intense rainfall, with some areas engineered to withstand 65-75 mm per hour.[40] These measures collectively protect low-lying districts from both riverine and urban flash flooding.

Climate trends Observed changes Tokyo has experienced pronounced warming, with the annual mean surface temperature rising at a rate of 2.56°C per century from 1876 to 2020, a trend statistically significant at the 99% confidence level.[41] This rate substantially exceeds Japan's national average of 1.40°C per century over 1898â2024 at stations relatively unaffected by urbanization,[42] reflecting intensification of the urban heat island effect as the city expanded and densified over time.Annual mean precipitation in Tokyo shows no discernible long-term trend over the 1876â2020 period.[41] However, heavy rainfall events have increased in frequency nationally, with urbanization amplifying extreme precipitation in the metropolitan area.

Future projections Future projections of Tokyo's climate, based on regional downscaling of global climate models, indicate substantial warming and shifts in extreme weather under various emissions scenarios.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency's "Climate Change in Japan 2025" report, which uses RCP2.6 (low-emission, approximately 2°C global warming) and RCP8.5 (high-emission, approximately 4°C global warming) scenarios, Japan's annual mean surface temperature is projected to rise by about 1.4°C under the low-emission pathway and 4.5°C under the high-emission pathway by the end of the 21st century (2081â2100 relative to 1986â2005).[42] These increases exceed global averages, with urban areas like Tokyo likely experiencing amplified warming due to the intensified urban heat island effect.[42]Extreme heat events are expected to become more frequent.

The annual number of days with maximum temperatures â¥35°C is projected to increase by approximately 2.9 days under the low-emission scenario and 17.5 days under the high-emission scenario, while tropical nights (minimum temperatures â¥25°C) are anticipated to rise by 8.2 and 38.0 days per year, respectively.[42]Annual precipitation shows no significant overall change in projections, but extreme rainfall is expected to intensify significantly.

The frequency of hourly heavy rainfall events (â¥50 mm/h) is projected to increase by about 1.8 times under low emissions and 3.0 times under high emissions, with days of â¥100 mm precipitation rising by 1.2 and 1.4 times, respectively. Annual maximum daily precipitation may increase by approximately 12% and 27% under the two scenarios.[42]Typhoon intensity is projected to rise, with stronger winds and heavier precipitation associated with individual storms, driven by higher atmospheric moisture and sea surface temperatures around Japan.

While overall typhoon frequency may not change substantially, the risk of intense typhoons affecting eastern Japan, including Tokyo, is expected to grow. Combined with projected sea level rise of 0.40 m (low-emission) to 0.68 m (high-emission) by 2081â2100, this will heighten storm surge risks in Tokyo Bay.[42]These projections align with broader East Asian trends in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, which indicate continued increases in heat extremes, heavy precipitation frequency and intensity, and intensification of strong tropical cyclones in the region under future warming.[43]

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• Weather in Tokyo

Weather in Tokyo?

A rainy season (tsuyu) in early summer and typhoon risks from summer to autumn contribute to significant seasonal precipitation. Dense urbanization further amplifies heat retention and temperature extremes in the city compared to surrounding regions.[1][2][3]Tokyo's climate reflects its location on the Pacific side of Honshu island in the KantÅ region, where eastern Japan's weather patterns domina...